A Soviet spacecraft launched in the 1970s for a mission to Venus is now expected to make an uncontrolled return to Earth, according to space debris-tracking experts.
Dutch scientist and satellite tracker Marco Langbroek from Delft University of Technology says the re-entry of the failed spacecraft, expected around May 10, is unusual but not a cause for public panic. If it stays intact, it could hit the ground at around 150 mph (242 km/h).
"While not without risk, we should not be too worried," Langbroek said in an email.
The vessel is comparatively compact and, even remaining whole, "the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime," he stated.
He further noted that whilst the probability of the spacecraft striking an individual or object is minimal, "it cannot be completely excluded."
What is Kosmos 482 ?
The spacecraft, known as Kosmos 482, was part of the Soviet Union’s 1970s-era Venus exploration program.
Launched on March 31, 1972, it failed to leave Earth’s orbit after a rocket malfunction, likely caused by a misconfigured timer, left it stuck in Earth’s orbit instead of sending it to Venus.
The spacecraft broke into four pieces, and one of those — a spherical landing module about 1 meter wide and weighing roughly 480–500 kilograms — has been circling Earth for over 50 years in a slowly decaying orbit.
Originally orbiting nearly 10,000 kilometers above Earth, the object is now below 400 kilometers and expected to re-enter the atmosphere around May 10.
Similar uncontrolled re-entries have occurred in recent years, including debris from China's Long March rocket and parts of SpaceX rockets found in Australia and Poland.
Where will Kosmos 482 re-enter?
Experts say the spacecraft could re-enter anywhere between 51.7° north and south latitude — a wide area that includes cities like London and Edmonton, all the way down to South America's Cape Horn, according to ABC Science.
However, since most of the Earth is covered by ocean, “chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean”, Langbroek said.
In 2022, a Chinese rocket booster made an uncontrolled return to Earth, and in 2018, the Tiangong-1 space station fell into the South Pacific after a similar re-entry.
Right now, space agencies around the world are tracking Kosmos 482 as it continues its slow descent. But it's still too early to say exactly where it will land — or whether it will burn up in the atmosphere.
Many pieces of space junk end up in a remote part of the Pacific Ocean, often called the “spacecraft cemetery.”
Why it’s called Kosmos?
According to Nasa, starting in 1962, the Soviet Union used the name "Kosmos" (or "Cosmos") for any spacecraft that stayed in Earth orbit — even if that wasn’t the original plan. Many of these missions were meant to explore other planets but were renamed after failing to leave orbit.
Historical records and expert sources confirm that some "Kosmos" missions were actually planetary probes. These missions typically began with the spacecraft being placed in a temporary Earth orbit.
From there, a booster engine was supposed to fire for about four minutes to send the probe toward its target — like Venus or Mars. If that final engine burn failed, the spacecraft remained stuck in Earth orbit and received a "Kosmos" designation instead.
Will it survive re-entry?
The spacecraft has a genuine possibility of enduring. Due to its construction for Venus's dense atmospheric entry, Kosmos 482 possesses exceptional durability compared to typical space objects.
However, the spacecraft's survival through atmospheric re-entry raises apprehension. The lander's robust design, specifically engineered for Venus's carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere descent, contributes to its extraordinary resilience.
The substantial spacecraft, weighing over 1,000lb (nearly 500kg), may well endure re-entry, according to Langbroek from Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, citing its construction for Venus's carbon dioxide-dense atmosphere.
Specialists have reservations about the functionality of the parachute system after decades. Extended orbital exposure may have affected the heat shield's integrity.
According to Jonathan McDowell at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, heat shield failure would be preferable, leading to the spacecraft's disintegration during atmospheric descent.
However, should the heat shield remain intact, "it'll re-enter intact and you have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky".
For now, space trackers will keep watching until it finally comes down — wherever that may be.
Dutch scientist and satellite tracker Marco Langbroek from Delft University of Technology says the re-entry of the failed spacecraft, expected around May 10, is unusual but not a cause for public panic. If it stays intact, it could hit the ground at around 150 mph (242 km/h).
"While not without risk, we should not be too worried," Langbroek said in an email.
The vessel is comparatively compact and, even remaining whole, "the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime," he stated.
He further noted that whilst the probability of the spacecraft striking an individual or object is minimal, "it cannot be completely excluded."
What is Kosmos 482 ?
The spacecraft, known as Kosmos 482, was part of the Soviet Union’s 1970s-era Venus exploration program.
Launched on March 31, 1972, it failed to leave Earth’s orbit after a rocket malfunction, likely caused by a misconfigured timer, left it stuck in Earth’s orbit instead of sending it to Venus.
The spacecraft broke into four pieces, and one of those — a spherical landing module about 1 meter wide and weighing roughly 480–500 kilograms — has been circling Earth for over 50 years in a slowly decaying orbit.
Originally orbiting nearly 10,000 kilometers above Earth, the object is now below 400 kilometers and expected to re-enter the atmosphere around May 10.
Similar uncontrolled re-entries have occurred in recent years, including debris from China's Long March rocket and parts of SpaceX rockets found in Australia and Poland.
Where will Kosmos 482 re-enter?
Experts say the spacecraft could re-enter anywhere between 51.7° north and south latitude — a wide area that includes cities like London and Edmonton, all the way down to South America's Cape Horn, according to ABC Science.
However, since most of the Earth is covered by ocean, “chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean”, Langbroek said.
In 2022, a Chinese rocket booster made an uncontrolled return to Earth, and in 2018, the Tiangong-1 space station fell into the South Pacific after a similar re-entry.
Right now, space agencies around the world are tracking Kosmos 482 as it continues its slow descent. But it's still too early to say exactly where it will land — or whether it will burn up in the atmosphere.
Many pieces of space junk end up in a remote part of the Pacific Ocean, often called the “spacecraft cemetery.”
Why it’s called Kosmos?
According to Nasa, starting in 1962, the Soviet Union used the name "Kosmos" (or "Cosmos") for any spacecraft that stayed in Earth orbit — even if that wasn’t the original plan. Many of these missions were meant to explore other planets but were renamed after failing to leave orbit.
Historical records and expert sources confirm that some "Kosmos" missions were actually planetary probes. These missions typically began with the spacecraft being placed in a temporary Earth orbit.
From there, a booster engine was supposed to fire for about four minutes to send the probe toward its target — like Venus or Mars. If that final engine burn failed, the spacecraft remained stuck in Earth orbit and received a "Kosmos" designation instead.
Will it survive re-entry?
The spacecraft has a genuine possibility of enduring. Due to its construction for Venus's dense atmospheric entry, Kosmos 482 possesses exceptional durability compared to typical space objects.
However, the spacecraft's survival through atmospheric re-entry raises apprehension. The lander's robust design, specifically engineered for Venus's carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere descent, contributes to its extraordinary resilience.
The substantial spacecraft, weighing over 1,000lb (nearly 500kg), may well endure re-entry, according to Langbroek from Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, citing its construction for Venus's carbon dioxide-dense atmosphere.
Specialists have reservations about the functionality of the parachute system after decades. Extended orbital exposure may have affected the heat shield's integrity.
According to Jonathan McDowell at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, heat shield failure would be preferable, leading to the spacecraft's disintegration during atmospheric descent.
However, should the heat shield remain intact, "it'll re-enter intact and you have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky".
For now, space trackers will keep watching until it finally comes down — wherever that may be.
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