Is all-out war inevitable between Israel and Hezbollah?

Israel launched a new round of air raids on Hezbollah bastions in Lebanon on Tuesday, following the previous day's bombardment that resulted in the deaths of nearly 500 individuals, including 35 children. This marks the most lethal attack since the destructive conflict in 2006.

The Israeli overnight assaults on southern Lebanon were carried out after the country claimed to have eliminated a "large number" of militants by striking approximately 1,600 suspected Hezbollah locations across Lebanon.

Driving the news

• The latest escalation comes after Israel launched a series of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, including the group's elite Radwan Force. Hezbollah, in turn, has increased its attacks on Israeli military positions and civilian areas.
• On September 24, Israeli airstrikes killed nearly 500 people in Lebanon, marking the deadliest day in the country since the 2006 war between the two sides. Lebanese civilians are fleeing southern Lebanon in droves, with highways jammed as people try to escape the fighting.
• Israeli military officials say they are focused on pushing Hezbollah forces away from the border and degrading its military capabilities. Meanwhile, both sides have exchanged increasingly heated rhetoric, with Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, threatening further retaliation for Israeli attacks.
• Last week, Israel launched a novel attack on Hezbollah's communication systems, utilizing pagers and walkie-talkies, which resulted in the death and injury of numerous Hezbollah operatives. This was followed by a targeted airstrike that killed Ibrahim Aqil, a prominent Hezbollah leader, along with other high-ranking commanders and some civilian casualties.
• In retaliation, Hezbollah expanded the reach of its rocket attacks on Israel, targeting both military installations and civilian areas throughout the northern region of the country.

Why it matters

• A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah could be far more devastating than the 34-day conflict in 2006, which left over 1,200 people dead in Lebanon and 160 in Israel.
• Hezbollah, a powerful militia backed by Iran, is believed to have amassed an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, many of which are capable of hitting major Israeli cities.
• Israel, in turn, has strengthened its military and is better prepared for conflict, with advanced missile defenses and intelligence capabilities.
• If the conflict escalates further, it could draw in regional powers such as Iran and Syria, destabilize neighboring countries like Jordan, and complicate ongoing US efforts to broker peace in the region.
• The timing is particularly sensitive, given that Israel is still engaged in a protracted conflict with Hamas in Gaza. A two-front war with Hamas in the south and Hezbollah in the north would stretch Israel’s military capabilities and create a broader regional conflict.

The big picture

• Hezbollah has been steadily increasing its military capabilities since the last major conflict with Israel. The group now possesses a more advanced arsenal of guided missiles, drones, and anti-tank weapons, much of which was supplied by Iran. Hezbollah fighters also gained battlefield experience during the Syrian civil war, where they fought alongside Iranian and Syrian forces. This makes Hezbollah a formidable opponent in the event of a ground war with Israel.
• Israel, however, has been equally active in preparing for such a scenario. Israeli intelligence has made significant gains in monitoring Hezbollah’s activities, and its air force has repeatedly targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in both Lebanon and Syria. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently declared that Israel is entering a "new phase" of operations against Hezbollah, signaling that a ground invasion of southern Lebanon is on the table.
• Both sides understand the risks of all-out war, which has so far served as a deterrent to a full-scale confrontation. Israeli officials have emphasized that they are focused on degrading Hezbollah’s military capabilities and preventing the group from launching attacks similar to those by Hamas in southern Israel. However, as Hezbollah continues to retaliate for Israeli strikes, the likelihood of miscalculation grows.

What they are saying

• Israeli officials argue that they have "no choice" but to respond to Hezbollah’s rocket fire, which has emptied entire communities near the Israel-Lebanon border over the past year. "Hezbollah’s actions have turned southern Lebanon into a battlefield," said an Israeli military official.
• The goal, according to this official, is to "degrade" Hezbollah's military capabilities, push its fighters away from the border, and destroy critical infrastructure built by its elite forces. "We cannot allow Hezbollah to do to us what Hamas did in the south," retired Colonel Miri Eisen, a senior fellow at Israel's International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, told AFP.
• Michael Horowitz, an Israeli political analyst, told AFP that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under intense pressure to restore security along the northern border. "Israel wants to gradually put pressure on Hezbollah, and strike harder and harder, in order to force it to rethink its alignment strategy with regard to Gaza," Horowitz said, referencing Hezbollah’s solidarity with Hamas.
• Horowitz added that while the situation is dangerous, it is not yet out of control. "This is an extremely dangerous situation, but one that for me still leaves room for diplomacy to avoid the worst," he said.
• From Hezbollah’s perspective, retaliation is inevitable, but the group is treading carefully to avoid triggering a full-scale war. Amal Saad, a Lebanese researcher on Hezbollah, explained that the group will seek to calibrate its responses so as not to provoke a devastating Israeli assault. "It will most likely, again, be a kind of sub-threshold reaction in the sense of below the threshold of war—a controlled escalation, but one that's also qualitatively different," Saad said.
• Saad also noted that Hezbollah’s confidence stems from its belief that it is stronger than its ally Hamas. "Hezbollah is extremely capable—and I would say more effective than Israel—when it comes to ground war, underground offensives, and we've seen this historically, particularly in 2006," she added.

Between the lines
While both sides are trying to avoid all-out war, their actions could easily spiral out of control. Hezbollah has been increasing its attacks on Israeli positions in response to strikes that killed senior commanders and damaged key military infrastructure. Nasrallah has vowed that his fighters will continue to fire rockets into northern Israel until Israel halts its operations in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Israeli officials have hinted that a ground invasion may be necessary if Hezbollah continues its attacks. Eisen, the retired colonel, said that "a ground incursion could be ordered to achieve a broader goal: ensuring Hezbollah cannot carry out anything similar to Hamas’s October 7 attack."


If such a ground invasion occurs, it would mark a significant escalation and could trigger a wider conflict involving Iran, Hezbollah’s main backer. Iran has already warned that it will not tolerate further Israeli aggression, and any ground operation could provoke direct intervention from Tehran.

What would happen

• As per a Wall Street Journal report, "it is unlikely Hezbollah could overpower Israel or decisively defeat it in a conventional war."
• Israel's military superiority over Hezbollah is evident in its advanced weaponry, including F-35 jet fighters and sophisticated air defense systems.
• Recent Israeli airstrikes have significantly impacted Hezbollah's leadership and military capabilities, demonstrating Israel's intelligence and operational prowess. A notable example was serial pager and walkie-talkie blasts that caused thousands of Hezbollah communication devices to explode, resulting in numerous casualties.
• Despite this, Israel faces strategic challenges in achieving a decisive victory.
• Hezbollah, while unlikely to defeat Israel conventionally, can employs asymmetric warfare tactics that could prolong any conflict. The group's strategy focuses on attrition, similar to Hamas's approach in Gaza, rather than seeking outright military victory.
• Hezbollah's well-trained forces and experience with antitank missiles, as noted by Lebanese army general Elias Farhat, make them a formidable opponent in guerrilla-style warfare.
• This asymmetric approach could potentially negate some of Israel's conventional military advantages in a prolonged conflict, the WSJ report said.

What’s next

• As the situation deteriorates, international efforts to mediate between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified. The US has urged both sides to exercise restraint and avoid further escalations. Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati is currently in New York, where he is seeking diplomatic support to bring the fighting to an end.
• The United Nations and other international actors are also pushing for a ceasefire, though the prospects for one remain uncertain. Both Israel and Hezbollah appear determined to continue their operations, at least in the short term, and neither side has shown interest in negotiations.
• At the same time, Israel is mobilizing additional forces along the northern border, preparing for the possibility of a larger confrontation. Reports indicate that Israel has stationed thousands of troops near the Lebanon border, ready to enter southern Lebanon if necessary. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is believed to be fortifying its positions in anticipation of an Israeli ground assault.

(With inputs from agencies)