'Calling' the election: Why media declares winner in US prez race

The American presidential election is unique in the way its results are announced. Unlike in India, where votes polled in state and central elections are counted on a scheduled day and the official results are put out by the Election Commission (EC), it's the media that announces the winner in the US - a process called 'calling the election'. There are two reasons for it - one, the question of who won the American presidential election isn't officially answered till a few weeks after voting day, and two, there is no central or federal EC in the United States, where elections are held by the states.

To fill this void between voting day and the final official announcement, media organisations - news agency the Associated Press being the most prominent among them - step in to collate the results and 'call' a winner.

'Calling' the election, mind you, is not an exit poll - it's an entirely different exercise that is rooted not in a survey but actual ballot counting data.

Why's official process long?

Since the US does not have a central polling agency, this job belongs to the states, each of which has its own set of norms and processes to follow. The states and local govts start counting votes after polling concludes on election day - this year, it's Nov 5. This is a complicated exercise in itself because again, unlike in India when voting concludes on the same day it starts, American states can receive mail-in ballots in the days after election day too. Once counting is done, every state takes its own time to certify the results. California, for instance, typically takes a month - till Dec - to tabulate and release the official vote count.

Another complexity unique to the American system is the formal process to elect the president through an Electoral College, whose composition is what the votes to elect the president are in essence cast for. It's only in Jan, two months after election day, that the president-elect is declared.

A gap to fill

"That's a gap in the constitution left by the founders that AP stepped in to fill just two years after our company was founded. It was essential then, as it is today, that Americans have an independent, non-partisan source for the whole picture of the election - most critically of the very vital news of who has won," David Scott, AP vice-president, was quoted in an article published by the news agency earlier this month.

AP, then a newspaper cooperative formed two years before, made its first call in a presidential election in 1848. Media organisations, on their estimations, declared presidential winners in the years after, and the first formal collaboration took shape in the 1960s. AP and three broadcasters - ABC, CBS and NBC - formed the National Election Pool (NEP) to compile the results.

AP eventually broke away from this grouping in 2016 and went on to formed APVoteCast to survey the electorate independently. Broadcasters in NEP switched to data and analysis from polling company Edison Research top read and 'call' the election.

How it's done

While states tabulate their results, AP keeps its own vote count for each state race by deploying reporters and analysts on the ground. This year, AP says it is deploying 4,000 'vote count reporters' at election offices and precincts across the US.

The reporters, according to AP, call in with results to 800 'vote entry clerks', who feed the vote counts into AP's standardised format. The same clerks are tasked with entering results from official sources online, such as county and state election websites. They also monitor automated data feeds provided by election officials in some states.

There are at least two to three verification checks. The clerks are trained to ask reporters questions if the county results or vote totals look unusual. The system flags any unusual results or statistics to the clerk who is feeding in the vote count. For instance, if a candidate is reported to have received more votes than the county's electorate, the system will alert the clerk about an error, says AP. Vote counts reported by journalists are matched with official online sources to see if they are reported. But this check is limited to states that keep updating their vote counts. AP has a 'decision team' that includes 'race callers' who work closely with 'analysts' on races in the states that decide the presidential election.

Before calling a race, this team studies how many votes are left to count. Other than vote totals known to it, the team tries to estimate the overall expected turnout of every county, based on several factors. These can range from voter turnout in previous elections, and early voting trends from the specific area. This team also keeps track of mail-in ballots if that information is released by states or counties.

Elucidating on the process, AP says on its blog: "AP does not make projections or name apparent or likely winners. If our race callers cannot definitively say a candidate has won, we do not engage in speculation... All of this reporting and analysis is aimed at determining the answer to a single question: Can the trailing candidates catch the leader? Only when the answer is an unquestionable 'no' is the race ready to be called."

As a result, 'calling' the election can take time - not as long as the official one- but days. In the 2020 presidential race, AP declared Joe Biden the winner four days after voting. The current contest between vice-president and Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump is expected to be an even tighter one, and therefore, 'calling' may take equally long if not longer.