BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have crashed terribly! Global markets are in a shock with US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs stoking global recession fears. Indian stock markets are not immune to the global selloff, and while experts believe that the impact of Trump’s tariffs will be lesser on India compared to other major economies, the worries around global and US recession are fueling caution in the Indian stock markets as well.
Sensex and Nifty recorded their steepest single-day fall in 10 months. The severe decline witnessed in the indices marked one of their most significant drops in a five-year period.
Investors have lost several lakh crore in the stock market rout, and the volatility is expected to continue. So what is the outlook of the Indian stock market in the near term? And importantly, is the long-term bull run story still intact? We take a look:
Stock market crash in numbers
Where is the Indian stock market headed in the short-term?
Rahul Jain, President & Head, Nuvama Wealth expects the market volatility to persist over the next two quarters as the uncertainty surrounding tariffs gradually diminishes.
According to Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Technical Research at Anand Rathi, “In the recent session, NIFTY tanked almost 1,000 points, erasing all gains made from 04-03-2025 to 25-03-2025 (a total of 1,900 points from the bottom of 21,964.60). Thus, a daily close above the 22,000 mark is critical, as it will set the tone for the next few sessions. In terms of support, 21,750–21,700 would act as a strong zone; if NIFTY closes below 21,700 on a daily basis, one may expect a decline toward 21,300. On the higher side, resistance is seen near 22,300–22,500. Long-term bottom confirmation is expected only above a daily close of 23,800.”
Also Read | How much will Indian economy be hit by Trump tariffs? Government officials maintain GDP growth projections
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services believes that the stock market will remain volatile. “We expect the market to remain volatile on the back of ongoing global trade tension and potential further developments on the US tariff front,” he said.
Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking is of the view that the market turbulence was further aggravated by China's announcement of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, raising concerns over a possible escalation into a broader trade war. “This development has sparked fears of global economic disruptions, and the impact is being felt across international markets—a trend that could persist given the current uncertainty,” he said.
“Technically, a decisive close below the 21,700 level on the Nifty could pave the way for further downside toward 21,300. Conversely, any recovery attempt is likely to face resistance in the 22,500–22,800 zone. Given the prevailing volatility, traders are advised to adopt a hedged approach and manage position sizes cautiously until we see some stability,” he added.
Sensex, Nifty: What’s the long-term outlook?
Rahul Jain, President & Head, Nuvama Wealth maintains a positive outlook on India's long-term growth trajectory, which is expected to yield numerous investment opportunities. “The current correction in the equity markets has resulted in attractive valuations, creating a favorable environment for investors to deploy their incremental surplus. Across all asset classes, we find significant potential, particularly in gold. It is advisable for investors to adhere to their asset allocation strategies and make informed investment decisions accordingly,” he told TOI.
Narendra Solanki, Head Fundamental Research - Investment Services at Anand Rathi Shares says, from a long-term investment standpoint, we maintain a constructive outlook on the Indian economy.
Also Read | Will Nifty follow Nasdaq into the bear market zone? Stock market crash a direct echo of Wall Street bloodbath
“We have a 12 month target of 26,000 on Nifty50. While short-term market volatility has resurfaced in light of the recent tariff announcement by former US President Donald Trump, which has sparked concerns around global trade dynamics and capital flows, we believe this disruption is transient in nature. The near-term noise is unlikely to derail the structural growth story of India, though it may temporarily impact investor sentiment, corporate earnings visibility, and asset price returns,” he told TOI.
According to Solanki, India stands relatively insulated in this scenario for several fundamental reasons.
Firstly, the tariff differential—i.e., the relative impact of new U.S. trade barriers—is materially lower for India when compared to other large exporting economies, particularly in Asia. This positions India more favorably in the global value chain reallocation theme.
Secondly, the significant correction in crude oil prices is a major macroeconomic tailwind. Given India’s status as a net oil importer, lower energy prices not only ease the current account deficit but also reduce input cost pressures across sectors, thereby supporting profitability and fiscal management.
Thirdly, domestic inflation continues to moderate. This trend is supportive of a stable interest rate environment and enhances real disposable incomes, which could underpin consumption recovery. Lower inflation also provides the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with greater policy flexibility, should further accommodation be required.
Fourth, domestic institutional flows remain robust. Despite global uncertainty, Indian mutual funds and pension funds have consistently deployed capital into equity and debt markets, providing an important counterbalance to any potential foreign portfolio outflows. This structural shift towards financialization of household savings continues to lend depth and resilience to Indian capital markets.
Fifth, an above-normal monsoon forecast bodes well for rural demand. With agriculture employing a significant portion of the population, a favorable monsoon will not only support rural incomes but also improve demand for consumer goods, fertilizers, auto, and other allied sectors—contributing to broad-based economic recovery.
“While we remain cognizant of short-term headwinds stemming from global geopolitical developments, we are confident that India's macroeconomic fundamentals, policy resilience, and structural growth drivers will continue to provide a strong foundation for long-term economic expansion and capital market performance,” he added.
Disclaimer: The opinions, analyses and recommendations expressed herein are those of brokerages and do not reflect the views of The Times of India. Always consult a qualified investment advisor or financial planner before making any investment decisions.
Sensex and Nifty recorded their steepest single-day fall in 10 months. The severe decline witnessed in the indices marked one of their most significant drops in a five-year period.
Investors have lost several lakh crore in the stock market rout, and the volatility is expected to continue. So what is the outlook of the Indian stock market in the near term? And importantly, is the long-term bull run story still intact? We take a look:
Stock market crash in numbers
- Nifty50 dropped 1,150 points or 5% to 21,758 at the start of trading, marking its poorest opening since March 2020 during the COVID-19 crisis. This represented the largest single-day decline since June'24, when the indices fell by more than 8%. The market showed signs of improvement near closing, with Nifty closing 726 points down at 22,178 (-3.2%).
- Investors at Dalal Street experienced substantial losses with their collective wealth diminishing by Rs 14 lakh crore following a significant downturn in benchmark indices, influenced by worldwide market turbulence due to recession concerns. The overall market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies saw a considerable reduction of Rs 14,09,225.71 crore, settling at Rs 3,89,25,660.75 crore (USD 4.54 trillion) within a single trading session.
- Both Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap100 indices experienced substantial selling, declining by 3.5% and 3.8% respectively.
- Indian markets performed comparatively better than other Asian markets due to reduced tariffs and less dependence on American exports.
- Among sectors, the Metal Index fell by nearly 7% due to escalating US-China trade tensions, with China implementing export limitations on crucial rare metals.
- Nifty IT index finished with a decline of over 2%, after reaching a new 52-week low of 30,919 during trading hours. The index has decreased by more than 8% in three sessions, as investors became cautious due to potential recession concerns in the US, which is India's primary market for technology services.
Where is the Indian stock market headed in the short-term?
Rahul Jain, President & Head, Nuvama Wealth expects the market volatility to persist over the next two quarters as the uncertainty surrounding tariffs gradually diminishes.
According to Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Technical Research at Anand Rathi, “In the recent session, NIFTY tanked almost 1,000 points, erasing all gains made from 04-03-2025 to 25-03-2025 (a total of 1,900 points from the bottom of 21,964.60). Thus, a daily close above the 22,000 mark is critical, as it will set the tone for the next few sessions. In terms of support, 21,750–21,700 would act as a strong zone; if NIFTY closes below 21,700 on a daily basis, one may expect a decline toward 21,300. On the higher side, resistance is seen near 22,300–22,500. Long-term bottom confirmation is expected only above a daily close of 23,800.”
Also Read | How much will Indian economy be hit by Trump tariffs? Government officials maintain GDP growth projections
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services believes that the stock market will remain volatile. “We expect the market to remain volatile on the back of ongoing global trade tension and potential further developments on the US tariff front,” he said.
Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking is of the view that the market turbulence was further aggravated by China's announcement of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, raising concerns over a possible escalation into a broader trade war. “This development has sparked fears of global economic disruptions, and the impact is being felt across international markets—a trend that could persist given the current uncertainty,” he said.
“Technically, a decisive close below the 21,700 level on the Nifty could pave the way for further downside toward 21,300. Conversely, any recovery attempt is likely to face resistance in the 22,500–22,800 zone. Given the prevailing volatility, traders are advised to adopt a hedged approach and manage position sizes cautiously until we see some stability,” he added.
Sensex, Nifty: What’s the long-term outlook?
Rahul Jain, President & Head, Nuvama Wealth maintains a positive outlook on India's long-term growth trajectory, which is expected to yield numerous investment opportunities. “The current correction in the equity markets has resulted in attractive valuations, creating a favorable environment for investors to deploy their incremental surplus. Across all asset classes, we find significant potential, particularly in gold. It is advisable for investors to adhere to their asset allocation strategies and make informed investment decisions accordingly,” he told TOI.
Narendra Solanki, Head Fundamental Research - Investment Services at Anand Rathi Shares says, from a long-term investment standpoint, we maintain a constructive outlook on the Indian economy.
Also Read | Will Nifty follow Nasdaq into the bear market zone? Stock market crash a direct echo of Wall Street bloodbath
“We have a 12 month target of 26,000 on Nifty50. While short-term market volatility has resurfaced in light of the recent tariff announcement by former US President Donald Trump, which has sparked concerns around global trade dynamics and capital flows, we believe this disruption is transient in nature. The near-term noise is unlikely to derail the structural growth story of India, though it may temporarily impact investor sentiment, corporate earnings visibility, and asset price returns,” he told TOI.
According to Solanki, India stands relatively insulated in this scenario for several fundamental reasons.
Firstly, the tariff differential—i.e., the relative impact of new U.S. trade barriers—is materially lower for India when compared to other large exporting economies, particularly in Asia. This positions India more favorably in the global value chain reallocation theme.
Secondly, the significant correction in crude oil prices is a major macroeconomic tailwind. Given India’s status as a net oil importer, lower energy prices not only ease the current account deficit but also reduce input cost pressures across sectors, thereby supporting profitability and fiscal management.
Thirdly, domestic inflation continues to moderate. This trend is supportive of a stable interest rate environment and enhances real disposable incomes, which could underpin consumption recovery. Lower inflation also provides the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with greater policy flexibility, should further accommodation be required.
Fourth, domestic institutional flows remain robust. Despite global uncertainty, Indian mutual funds and pension funds have consistently deployed capital into equity and debt markets, providing an important counterbalance to any potential foreign portfolio outflows. This structural shift towards financialization of household savings continues to lend depth and resilience to Indian capital markets.
Fifth, an above-normal monsoon forecast bodes well for rural demand. With agriculture employing a significant portion of the population, a favorable monsoon will not only support rural incomes but also improve demand for consumer goods, fertilizers, auto, and other allied sectors—contributing to broad-based economic recovery.
“While we remain cognizant of short-term headwinds stemming from global geopolitical developments, we are confident that India's macroeconomic fundamentals, policy resilience, and structural growth drivers will continue to provide a strong foundation for long-term economic expansion and capital market performance,” he added.
Disclaimer: The opinions, analyses and recommendations expressed herein are those of brokerages and do not reflect the views of The Times of India. Always consult a qualified investment advisor or financial planner before making any investment decisions.
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