US President Election 2024: Pollster Darren Shaw, who conducted a Fox News survey with Democrat Chris Anderson, says, "Our estimate is that if Trump is within 2 points of Kamala Harris at the national level, he will win the Electoral College.
The presidential election in America (US President Election 2024) is about to take place. There is a close contest between Trump and Kamala Harris. Both are overpowering each other. But Kamala Harris has left Trump behind. Most of the voters in America are seeing Kamala Harris as a candidate who will think about the interests of the middle class and help them. Hispanic and independent voters are seen leaning towards her.
Harris and Trump, who is ahead?The new Fox News national survey found that the presidential election has shifted by 3 percentage points among registered voters since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris now leads by 2 points: 50%-48%. In July, Trump was ahead of President Joe Biden by 1 point.
Voters liking Kamala Harris
For the first time, Kamala Harris has received 50% support and the trail ballot results are similar among both registered and likely voters. This is not surprising, because most Americans who are willing to take the time to answer a political survey will likely also vote.
Even though presidential elections are decided by states' electoral votes, not the total national vote, in 2016 Hillary Clinton had a 2-point popular vote margin over Trump but lost the Electoral College 304-227, while in 2020 Biden's 4-point popular vote win translated into a 306-232 Electoral College win. Since the August survey, several events have occurred that may have influenced voters' opinions.
- The Democratic National Convention was held
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. drops out of the race and endorses Trump
- Former Vice President Dick Cheney and former Congresswoman Liz Cheney endorsed Harris
- There was a presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Trump.
- A second assassination attempt on Trump occurred among nearly three-quarters of the new poll.
The biggest shift since August is that independents and Hispanics have leaned towards Kamala Harris. In August, Hispanics preferred Trump by 6 points, but today they prefer Harris by 12 points. Last month, independents preferred Trump by 8 points, but now they prefer Harris by 12 points. It is important to remember that smaller subgroups are more unpredictable, and they tend to change more than others. This will also apply to the US election. Trump has received the best numbers from people who regularly attend worship services, non-college white males, rural voters, and men.
- Kamala Harris has the strongest support from black voters.
- Harris supports urban voters, people under 30.
- Voters aged 65 years and above
- Getting support from college graduates and women.
That's among union families, a group Biden won by low double digits. But his numbers among blacks and young voters are still slightly behind his 2020 pre-election numbers. Democrats are optimistic that this group will support Harris. But that's not a guarantee.
These voters are still with Kamala HarrisKamala Harris has retained almost all Biden voters (93%) from 2020. On the other hand, almost all supporters (94%) who supported Trump in 2020 are still with him. Among 2020 non-voters, Kamala Harris is ahead by 3 points, 51%-48%. If we look at the results of only those counties where the 2020 presidential election was very close (Biden and Trump within 10 points), then Trump is ahead 50%-48%. His lead is similar in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Pollster Darren Shaw, who conducted the Fox News survey with Democrat Chris Anderson, said, "Our forecast is that if Trump is within 2 points of Kamala Harris nationally, he will win the Electoral College. The data, which shows Trump leads in key counties and hotly contested states, suggests that's probably true."
Which voters like Donald Trump?Overall, 72% of Trump supporters say they like his policies and record. Another 8% of voters like his character, but 19% say they do not like Kamala Harris. Those supporting Harris have a mixed opinion. Because 42% like her policies and record, 24% like her character, while 33% are supporting Harris because they do not like Trump.
