Why Is The PM Missing In Action Ahead Of The Assembly Polls?

A question that should be asked now is, why Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems so uninterested in the Assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir? Unlike in the past when the prime minister was seen campaigning with a killer instinct, leading from the front, this time his absence from the battleground is surprising. Except for a few rallies in both the states, the PM is missing in action, abroad and seen fraternising with foreign leaders.

Ever since he became the prime minister, Modi changed the matrix of electioneering. He turned the BJP into an election machine that became so big and efficient that it was considered invincible. Other political parties paled in comparison. None of the opposition parties could match the gladiatorial instinct of the BJP. The BJP under Modi was called a party that was always in election mode. That instinct seemed to be missing this time. Can it be said that the prime minister, after being humiliated electorally in the 2024 general election when his party ‘unexpectedly’ lost the majority in the lower house of Parliament, is in deep depression and finding it difficult to regain his past vigour?

Haryana is one of the North Indian states where the BJP did not do well in the 2024 elections. It lost five seats to the Congress. In 2019, it had won all ten seats with 58.02% votes. The Congress was then reduced to only 28.42% votes, a gap of almost 30%. But in 2024, BJP’s vote share dropped to 46.11% and the Congress vote share along with the alliance partner AAP, had 47.61% vote. Today, the Congress is a resurgent force in the state and the BJP is in decline. BJP is aware that despite its brilliant performance in 2019, BJP could not maintain its momentum in the Assembly elections, held later, within few months, it failed to win a majority. Its vote share shrank to 36.49% with only 40 seats, whereas to form the government it needed 46 seats. It had to take the support of JJP (Jannayak Janta Party). The BJP is worried that this time when the party’s vote share in the 2024 election is already down by 12% in comparison to the 2019 parliamentary elections, a further drop in vote share is inevitable and if that happens then the BJP will be in trouble in the Assembly elections..

The BJP has realised that there is strong anti-incumbency in the state against its government. In 2014 when it formed the government then it was a new entity in Haryana. Before that, the BJP was a fringe player in state politics. The Congress and Indian National Lok Dal, deriving their legacy from Chaudhary Devi Lal, the former deputy prime minister, were the main players. In 2014, thanks to the Modi phenomenon, the BJP most spectacularly swept the poll and formed the government. It appointed first-time MLA Manohar Lal Khattar as the chief minister. Khattar instead of consolidating BJP’s social base, frittered it away. In 2019, he managed to form the government but it was known to all that the BJP was vulnerable. Under Khattar, the party did not do enough to win back lost voters. Khattar led a lacklustre government again. Today Haryana tops the list among states with the largest number of unemployed youth. According to The Hindustan Times report, “46102 graduates and postgraduates have applied for the jobs of contractual sweepers for the meagre salary of Rs 15000 / month.

Khattar became a liability for the party. No wonder he was changed, with a new face at the helm. But it did not help much as new CM Nayab Singh Saini is seen as a protege of Khattar. The gamble of changing the chief minister does not seem to be paying off. Khattar is so unpopular that his face is missing from BJP posters and campaign materials.

The farmer’s movement complicated things for the BJP. The Modi government dealt with the farmers in the most atrocious manner. It refused to acknowledge their presence, called them names and branded them Khalistan supporters. For more than a year farmers had to sit on dharna in the most extreme conditions. The Khattar government instead of sympathising with the farmers, closely collaborated with the Modi government. Now that the election process is on, farmers have vowed to teach BJP a lesson. BJP candidates and their leaders are not welcome in villages. There are reports that several candidates are being chased away in rural areas. Even the grandson of Bhajan Lal, Bhavya, who is contesting from Adampur, has not been spared and has had to face the wrath of the farmers. This is the constituency where the Bhajan Lal family has won 11 times in a row. Bhavya is contesting on the BJP’s ticket.

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The local Jat population is also angry about the way BJP dealt with women wrestlers who had accused BJP leader Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh of sexually misbehaving with them. These are athletes who have won medals for the country in international events. The BJP openly sided with Brij Bhushan. Instead of taking action against him, the party chose to malign and character-assassinate the girls. International athletes like Vinesh Phogat and Bajrang Punia finally chose to join the Congress. Vinesh is contesting elections. Opinion polls and other reports are hinting that the BJP government is already on its way out. Only the result has to be officially announced.

The Congress is in the habit of losing a winning election like it did in Uttarakhand and Punjab in the recent past. But in Haryana, the party looks more organised and prepared with a strong local leader like Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Though Dalit leader Shailaja is upset with the party and the BJP is trying to lure her. Dalits comprise almost 20% of the population. But Shailaja has not given any hint that she will leave the party, and in all probability it should manage a good win; only a miracle can save the BJP in the state.

Similarly, the BJP is on a sticky wicket in Jammu and Kashmir. Despite tall claims of development after the removal of Art 370 and 35A, the BJP has not fielded any candidate in 21 seats in Kashmir valley. In contrast, it has decided to back those whom it had called anti-national and separatists. It is widely speculated in the valley that the BJP has struck a deal with the banned organisation Jamat-e-Islami. Jamat for the first time since 1987 is supporting a few independent candidates. It is also being said that Engineer Rashid, allegedly a separatist leader, who has been freed from jail to campaign for his candidates, is playing the BJP’s game. The Jammu area where the BJP did well in the 2014 Assembly election and later supported and joined the PDP government, is replete with angry voters. The Congress and National Conference combine seems to have an edge in the election.

It is in this context that questions are being asked if the PM is deliberately avoiding elections and electioneering and enjoying foreign trips. Is it because on the heels of the humiliation in the 2024 elections, the prime minister does not want to face another humiliation and a public debate that his face is no longer a guarantee for winning elections? It is a matter of public record that after being sworn in as PM for the third time, he has been to Italy, Russia, Austria, Poland, Ukraine, Brunei, Singapore and now the USA for Quad and UN meetings. Whereas before the Parliamentary elections, from January to May 2024, he visited only UAE, Qatar and Bhutan. It’s not that the PM did not go on foreign trips earlier but he was very particular about elections for which he was always seen putting his best foot forward. He never shirked election duties. Even in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka where the BJP was predicted to lose, the prime minister campaigned with all his energy.

Haryana will be followed by Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi. How long will the PM avoid campaigning? Without him, the BJP is like any other party. Without his charisma, the BJP is leaderless. If the prime minister does not get out of his present mood, it will be catastrophic to the BJP and he can’t afford that personally also.

The writer is Co-Founder, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B

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