Suspense continues on Israel's pledged strike on Iran in response to Iran firing a barrage of missiles on Israel on October 1. There is speculation about both the timing and the target of Israel's attack. Many think Israel will hit Iran on October 7, the anniversary of Hamas attack on Israel last year, and it can target Israel nuclear or oil infrastructure.
An Israeli official told AFP on Saturday that the military is "preparing a response" to the Iranian missile barrage that targeted Israel earlier this week. "The IDF (Israeli military) is preparing a response to the unprecedented and unlawful Iranian attack on Israeli civilians and Israel," the military official said on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to speak publicly on the issue. He did not elaborate on the nature or timing of the response. Israel's Haaretz newspaper, quoting the military, reported that the military's response will be "significant".
Israel has given no assurances to the US
Israel has not given assurances to the Biden administration that targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities is off the table in retaliation for the Iranian ballistic missile strikes earlier this week, a top US State Department official told CNN on Friday.
President Joe Biden said earlier this week the US would not support Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear program. He also did not support a strike on Iranian oil infrastructure. “If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields,” Biden said at a press briefing Friday. Biden said the exact nature of any retaliatory action by Israel was "under discussion."
Israel's decision on the target of its attack in Iran must calculate the retaliatory strike by Iran which it has warned of.
Iran's Kharg island in Israeli cross hairs?
Israel is likely to mount a large-scale airstrike against Iran’s oil industry and possibly a symbolic attack on a military target related to its nuclear programme, former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak has predicted in an interview with Guardian. He said there had also been suggestions in Israel that it should make use of this opportunity, in reprisal for the Iranian attack, to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, but he argued it would not significantly set back the Iranian programme.
If Israel targets oil facilities of Iran, it could severely impact Iran's economy and infrastructure which is already strained due to US sanctions. Also, such a strike will not invite the as strong counter-strike by Iran as in case of Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
There is speculation that Kharg island off the coast of Iran, which is Iran's biggest oil terminal and exports most of its oil, could be a likely target of an Israeli attack.
Export terminals like Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf could be a target for an Israeli strike, AP reported. They play a key role in shipping crude oil abroad, primarily to Asian countries, including China.
Oil tankers waiting nearby Kharg island fled the area in the days since Tehran launched a missile salvo toward Israel on Monday and the world waits to see what the response will be, Bloomberg reported. Vessels that were previously sitting empty at an anchorage area near Kharg Island have now left the area, according to a post on X by TankerTrackers.com Inc, which monitors the vessels using satellite data, and Sentinel images examined by Bloomberg.
Although Iran is under sanctions, it has increasingly worked around those measures to pump significant volumes of supply to the oil market in recent years. The country’s output was 3.3 million barrels a day in September, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Goldman Sachs sees $20 spike in oil prices due to Iran shock
Oil prices could shoot up $20 per barrel if Iranian production sees a hit, according to Goldman Sachs. “If you were to see a sustained 1 million barrels per day drop in Iranian production, then you would see a peak boost to oil prices next year of around $20 per barrel,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday.
This is under the assumption that oil cartel OPEC+ refrains from responding by increasing production, Struyven said. Should key OPEC+ members such as Saudi Arabia and UAE offset some of the production losses, oil markets could see a smaller boost of slightly less than $10 barrel, he added.
(With inputs from agencies)
An Israeli official told AFP on Saturday that the military is "preparing a response" to the Iranian missile barrage that targeted Israel earlier this week. "The IDF (Israeli military) is preparing a response to the unprecedented and unlawful Iranian attack on Israeli civilians and Israel," the military official said on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to speak publicly on the issue. He did not elaborate on the nature or timing of the response. Israel's Haaretz newspaper, quoting the military, reported that the military's response will be "significant".
Israel has given no assurances to the US
Israel has not given assurances to the Biden administration that targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities is off the table in retaliation for the Iranian ballistic missile strikes earlier this week, a top US State Department official told CNN on Friday.
President Joe Biden said earlier this week the US would not support Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear program. He also did not support a strike on Iranian oil infrastructure. “If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields,” Biden said at a press briefing Friday. Biden said the exact nature of any retaliatory action by Israel was "under discussion."
Israel's decision on the target of its attack in Iran must calculate the retaliatory strike by Iran which it has warned of.
Iran's Kharg island in Israeli cross hairs?
Israel is likely to mount a large-scale airstrike against Iran’s oil industry and possibly a symbolic attack on a military target related to its nuclear programme, former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak has predicted in an interview with Guardian. He said there had also been suggestions in Israel that it should make use of this opportunity, in reprisal for the Iranian attack, to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, but he argued it would not significantly set back the Iranian programme.
If Israel targets oil facilities of Iran, it could severely impact Iran's economy and infrastructure which is already strained due to US sanctions. Also, such a strike will not invite the as strong counter-strike by Iran as in case of Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
There is speculation that Kharg island off the coast of Iran, which is Iran's biggest oil terminal and exports most of its oil, could be a likely target of an Israeli attack.
Export terminals like Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf could be a target for an Israeli strike, AP reported. They play a key role in shipping crude oil abroad, primarily to Asian countries, including China.
Oil tankers waiting nearby Kharg island fled the area in the days since Tehran launched a missile salvo toward Israel on Monday and the world waits to see what the response will be, Bloomberg reported. Vessels that were previously sitting empty at an anchorage area near Kharg Island have now left the area, according to a post on X by TankerTrackers.com Inc, which monitors the vessels using satellite data, and Sentinel images examined by Bloomberg.
Although Iran is under sanctions, it has increasingly worked around those measures to pump significant volumes of supply to the oil market in recent years. The country’s output was 3.3 million barrels a day in September, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Goldman Sachs sees $20 spike in oil prices due to Iran shock
Oil prices could shoot up $20 per barrel if Iranian production sees a hit, according to Goldman Sachs. “If you were to see a sustained 1 million barrels per day drop in Iranian production, then you would see a peak boost to oil prices next year of around $20 per barrel,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday.
This is under the assumption that oil cartel OPEC+ refrains from responding by increasing production, Struyven said. Should key OPEC+ members such as Saudi Arabia and UAE offset some of the production losses, oil markets could see a smaller boost of slightly less than $10 barrel, he added.
(With inputs from agencies)
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