Gold, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset, has witnessed a notable decline over the past week, raising concerns among investors and jewelry buyers alike. As of today, the price of 24-carat gold has dropped to ₹97,850 per 10 grams, and market analysts suggest that the trend may continue downward in the near term.
Let’s explore why gold prices are falling, what the global cues suggest, and what lies ahead for the yellow metal.
📉 What’s Driving the Fall in Gold Prices? 1. Middle East Tensions EasingGeopolitical tensions often drive gold prices upward due to increased demand for safe-haven assets. However, recent developments in the Middle East — particularly the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran — have led to reduced investor anxiety. This de-escalation has weakened demand for gold globally.
2. Strengthening of the U.S. DollarA stronger U.S. dollar generally puts downward pressure on gold prices, as gold is dollar-denominated. With the greenback firming up in international markets, the appeal of gold as an alternative investment has lessened, especially for investors holding other currencies.
3. Uncertainty Around U.S. Fed Rate CutsWhile U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at a possible rate cut in the future, he has also indicated that such a move won’t happen immediately. The ambiguity surrounding monetary policy has prompted investors to adopt a wait-and-watch stance, pulling capital away from gold and further impacting its price.
💹 Current Gold Prices in India (as per Tanishq)24K | ₹97,850 |
22K | ₹89,700 |
18K | ₹73,390 |
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Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), India:
Gold is currently trading flat at ₹95,475, with only a marginal change of 0.01%. Despite a positive start, prices haven’t shown significant upward momentum. -
International Gold Price:
Globally, gold opened lower but saw some mild recovery, currently trading around $3,280 per ounce. However, volatility persists due to global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
According to Jatin Trivedi, Research Analyst at LKP Securities (via PTI), gold is likely to trade in the range of ₹93,000 to ₹97,500 per 10 grams in India and $3,175 to $3,325 internationally, given the declining geopolitical risk and shifting investor sentiment.
N.S. Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities at Ventura Securities, echoed this sentiment. He stated that the room for gold to strengthen is limited in the current scenario. He also mentioned that the U.S.-China tariff deadline on July 9 could influence gold's short-term direction. If the deadline is extended, it may offer temporary relief to gold prices, but any major rally seems unlikely for now.
📌 Key Takeaways for Gold Buyers and Investors-
Don’t Rush to Buy: If you're planning to invest or buy gold for personal use, waiting a little longer could help you lock in lower prices.
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Monitor Global Cues: Watch for developments from the U.S. Federal Reserve and any updates on international trade or conflict zones, as they can quickly shift market dynamics.
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Consider Diversification: Given the volatility in gold, spreading your investments across asset classes might offer better risk-adjusted returns.
The recent dip in gold prices is largely driven by reduced geopolitical tensions, a firm U.S. dollar, and investor caution over the Federal Reserve’s next moves. While this may appear unsettling to current investors, it could be a strategic opportunity for new buyers, provided the market bottoms out further.
Stay updated and consult a financial advisor before making significant investment decisions in commodities like gold, especially during uncertain economic conditions.
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